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The importance of understanding the retrospective bias

The importance of understanding the retrospective bias
Every bettor needs to know how to deal with the bias of retrospective betting.
by Academia   |   comments 0

Since the subject here is betting, I would bet at this point that you have never read or heard about retrospective betting bias. Am I right? If you made a mistake, I will be happy anyway, because at least I know that you have been studying something very important for a bettor who seeks to be consistent and profitable. Now, if you have no idea what I'm talking about, follow our article, as it is a subject that is easy to understand and that is introduced in the experiences of our lives.

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Do you know when we say "I knew this was going to happen" or "I always knew"? This feeling of having foreseen the event and interpreting situations through a distorted perspective, in which we seek to accommodate ourselves in reasoning, without even seeking a deeper assessment of the real reason, is a common example of retrospective bias. This feeling of being in control of reality, especially in negative facts, makes our minds sabotage us with predictions and justifications that do not bring us any benefit.

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Bettors usually embark on these examples above, justifying their wrong bets on chance, randomness, time, magic, but they hardly seek to revise their methods, their punctual errors, their distorted assessment, which were probably the real reasons for the loss. This is a flawed point of the subject, because although they have the habit of deepening his analysis, using methods, their strategy naturally needs to be revised and adjusted, as information changes, new patterns are found and it is necessary to fit into these new features.
Translating and justifying the losses into “I almost won, I almost got it right” creating a false feeling, filling up with confidence to take the next steps in betting, is a common example that we analyze daily. Plus, even in the bets won this is dangerous, as many are won on the basis of luck and randomness, leaving the bettor with a feeling of being on the right track, without making a real assessment of what just happened, decreasing, for sure , your chances of success up front.
Our brain is invariably affected by these psychological traps, these biases, such as retrospective, such as others, each with a different characteristic, and which directly influence our gambling life. We will give an example to follow, through a study done, of how this is extremely common to happen in the bets.
In an experiment carried out with bettors, it was sought to understand why they continued using the same strategy that had made them lose previously. In the same way they wanted to analyze what was the view of some who had made the bet. Most of the losers put their justifications on randomness, on an athlete's mistake, on a crucial move, etc. Those who won were only based on the final result, without even considering that that score was the result of an error by a judge, something unusual, etc., or that naturally that result could have had other directions, that is, its evaluation could (and should) be perfectly revised. When a new round of betting took place, after this first study, a good part of the losing bettors put their past results in bad luck, including pouring higher values ​​into the guesses. Those who won also followed this path, given the simplistic assessment of relying only on their positive track record.
Successful bettors have greater clarity in their decision making, as well as a wider view of their results, whether positive or negative. Seeking to understand your greens and reds with greater objectivity is an important step, as we will naturally be subject to these behavioral views. When we recognize the points to be improved, weaknesses no longer become barriers, giving room for evolution and success.

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